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期货投机不是一门科学，也不是一个纯粹的智力游戏，而是一个主体的实践操作过程。这里面既有说得清楚的关于市场理解、交易原则、策略工具等方面的知识，又有许多涉及投机者个体性格、心理、意志、品质等方面人性的因素。
前一方面解决的是一个市场交易的基本思路问题；后一方面强调的是一个投机者应该具备的基本交易态度、心理素质问题。我以为，市场交易的成败，投机者在金融领域的最终命运，深层次的原因更多还是取决于投机者的心理、精神、人生态度等主观方面。
市场交易基本思路的确立是投机交易成功的基础。这两年我在全国各地的讲课，包括在北京大学的讲座，都围绕着这个核心展开。如果一个投机者在理论上都解决不了如何在期货交易中赢利，那在实际操作中，又怎么可能有出色的表现呢？
在期货交易中，大多数市场参与者没有稳定的思维和行为模式，投机者对于同一个品种，一会看多买进，一会看空卖出。缺乏明确一致的标准和依据。从一个旁观者的立场，你很难判断某个人下一步会做什么方向的交易。赚得稀里糊涂，亏得莫名其妙。显然这种混乱无序、漫无章法的操作手法，注定了任何一次交易结果的好坏必然被运气所支配，具有很大的偶然性。
而一个交易经验丰富、市场理解深刻的投机者，在经历了长期的摸索和尝试以后，往往能够建立起自己的交易模式、套路，具有明确的交易思路和交易风格。其思维和行为方式具有逻辑性和前后一致性。在市场出现重大变化时，他可能采取什么行动，怎样操作，一定程度上是可以预测得到的。
例如，我的一个朋友，他的进出场模式是根据趋势——突破的法则设计的。每当市场价格出现重大的波动时，我可以事先猜到他今天可能会做什么交易，而且十有八九事后都能得到印证。
市场价格的未来变化有不确定的一面，我们不是神仙，所以，我们不可以说——市场的未来是一本打开的书。而对于一个具有明确的交易思路、交易风格的人来说，在没有开始操作以前，他就有统计上的胜算和优势，总的交易结果赢利带有一定程度的必然性，这一点我们可以事先确定。
十多年的期货投机生涯中，我一直有个狂妄的设想，希望能把成功交易的基本思路、原则、方法讲清楚，形成一套系统的从理论到实践的投机操作套路。我曾经和一个朋友戏言：这个问题弄不明白，这辈子炒期货最终 “赔了夫人又折兵”， 死的不明不白， 那真是人生的悲剧。
根据我的浅见，一个成功操盘手至少应该具备下面几个方面的特征：
1、拥有一套相对稳定的，有优势、有胜算的交易模式。
期货市场是一个充满诱惑力的地方，每天都有数不胜数的机会。而机会和陷阱始终是一对孪生兄弟。很多市场参与者长线做，短线也做，顺势做，逆势也做，每天在市场中忙进忙出，无意中想要包打天下，抓住所有市场波动的利润，结果却往往是水中捞月，满怀希望而去，充满绝望而归。我们必须勒住自我欲望的缰绳，舍弃十八般武艺样样精通，企图打败市场的非份之想，永远只追求属于自己的利润，保持“滔滔江水，只取一瓢”的平和心态和境界。
一个成熟的操盘手往往能够从表面上看来不确定、随机的市场波动中找到某种相对确定、可以把握的机会。知道什么时候交易对投机者最有利、什么时候投机者应该退避三舍，静观其变等等。市场就像一个大海，可以容纳包括套保、套利、投机者在内的各种各样的人。所以，成功的交易并没有固定的标准答案。但是，为了在凶险的交易世界里不被消灭，每一个市场参与者必须找到适合自己的生存方式。
“触目横斜千万朵，赏心只有两三枝”。
只有确定了交易模式，投机者才能明确知道自己在市场中关注什么，寻找什么，哪些变化是非常重要的，哪些变化对自己是没有意义的，以及什么时候应该采取行动等等。我之所以提出投机的理论、假设、模型决定市场观察和交易这一套理论，就是想强调投机者拥有一套相对稳定的，有优势、有胜算的交易模式的重要性。
2、交易策略和风险控制的始终一贯性。
有人说，只要看看某个帐户每次赚钱和亏钱的比例，就可以知道一个人是赢家还是输家。是的，除了发生不可控制的意外事件以外，高明的操盘手是绝对不能容忍任何一笔交易出现灾难性损失的，而对判断正确，处于赢利状态的仓位，他会尽可能让它创造最大利润。不管我们选择的是怎样的交易模式，日内还是短线、波段还是长线，我们都必须一如继往的坚持任何一笔交易都不要出现大的损失；一如继往的采取试探——加码的交易策略，在行情走势和自己的判断相一致时，勇敢出击，扩大利润。
期货交易是一个限制损失的游戏，保护好自己才能有效地消灭敌人。投机者的所有交易都应该建立在这一原则基础之上：把亏损限制在小额，让利润充分增长。
3、市场判断和操作的前后一致性。
我们都有过这样的交易经历，明明市场行情已经启动，而等我们急匆匆进入市场，原来好好的走势突然掉头，我们被迫止损离场。一而再、再而三的失败尝试后，我们带着沮丧、绝望的心情发誓，再也不碰这个市场。结果市场随后的走向和我们当初设想的一模一样，我们只能站在一边独自苦笑。
还有一种情况，同样是我们看对了行情，却没有赚到钱。就像里费默在《股票作手回忆录》中所说的：
“在多头市场你总能找到很多很早就看涨的人，在熊市里你也能找到很早就看跌的人。我认识许多看盘高手，他们也是在最佳位置买卖股票。而且他们的经验总是跟我不谋而合。但是，他们却没真正赚到钱。看对市场而且紧握头寸不动的人难得一见，我发现这也是最难学的事。”
市场总是摧毁弱者。短期走势的偶然性和人为性特点，常常使我们看不清市场的长期方向，让我们误入歧途。不能在市场判断和操作时保持逻辑性和前后一致性，往往使我们和市场巨大利润擦肩而过。
4、辨证思维是投机者的立身之本
在市场交易中，长线有长线的思路，短线有短线的操作手法。问题的关键是投机者必须选择最适合自己个性和具体市场特点的方法，作为自己基本的交易模式。但无论多好的理论、工具，都有硬币的另一面。天下本来就没有完美的交易理论和工具，各种交易模式都有自己的长处，也有自己的弱点。这个市场永远不存在可以100%准确预测未来变化的技术和交易工具。所以，交易理论、工具正确运用的前提是，投机者必须具备辨证思维的能力，即使在自认为有绝对把握和胜算的机会出手时，也还是应该作好风险控制的准备，防止判断错误带来的巨大损失。
交易技巧和知识可以学习，市场经验可以累积，更重要的是要培养起成熟的心理并迅速付诸行动，这却是一个长期的修炼、追求、领悟过程。作为一个交易员，每天都会面对很大数目的输赢，责任和压力是非常大。从理性的角度看局部的输赢很正常，失败的交易、亏损的交易是成功路上的一部分。而人毕竟不是神，真正能够做到“不以物喜，不以己悲”，淡然的面对每天输输赢赢又非常地难。古人云：“圣人有情而无累”，说的是圣人不是没有感情，而是能够控制感情，不让感情成为行动的决定因素。作为一个交易员，由于输赢而引起情绪上的痛苦和快乐很正常，只不过无论某一次交易结果是好是坏，下一次操作该怎么做还得怎么做，不能够感情用事。控制自己的情绪、欲望这种事情，在一个充满诱惑的世界里，说起来容易做起来难。
所以我认为投机客是“行者”、“忍者”而非“学者”、“智者”。行动而非说话，实践而非理论，是一个职业投机者的本质特征。某种意义上说，现代金融市场训练有素的专业投机客，并非流行的科班教育体系可以培养出来，中外著名的高等学府也确实没有相应的投机专业。
现代高等教学过于强调智性训练，师生关系过分疏离的特点，并不符合培养一流职业投机客的素质教育要求。在我的想象中，中国古代琴棋书画以及民间手艺、武术的学习中，强调师承，强调师傅带徒弟的心传法门，可能是培养职业投机客可以借鉴的模式之一。我现在也正在做这方面的尝试。
我非常欣赏包括日本文化在内的东方哲学，因为自己是学哲学出身，一直有一个独断论式的偏见或者说情结，认为一个不了解德国哲学和日本精神的人，他的思维深度和对生命本质的领悟是有严重缺陷的。为此，我特意让自己的小孩学习德语和日语。
西方哲学的认识论，对投机者深刻的理解、把握市场运动非常有价值。我自己的市场交易哲学：投机的理论、假设、模型决定市场观察和交易，主要就是受了德国古典哲学家康德思想的启迪。
而东方哲学对投机者心理修养和人生境界的提高，在诡谲无常的市场变化面前保持一颗平常心，意义深远。日本的武士道和茶道，一动一静，让我对投机、对人生的真谛有更深的感受。
在武士的培养过程中，知识的教育，智能的训练，不能说不重要，但更重要的是武士人生态度、品格意志的培养，包括超然物外、淡泊名利的精神境界，从容不迫而又果断无畏的牺牲精神和行动能力，壮士断臂的勇气，对痛苦的超强忍耐力等等，这一切不正是一个典型的期货操盘手必备的个性特征吗？
成功的期货交易不是集体思考、决策的事业，而更像是一个投机者个体孤独的心理搏斗游戏。这种孤独表现在：漫长的交易学习过程就像一个人走夜路，茫茫荒原，不知何处是尽头；分析思考市场行情变化，让投机者体验到的是独自面对未来不确定性的痛苦无助；临场决策、操作的背后，隐藏的可能是投机者面对黑洞般的恐惧和对自身安全的深深忧虑，等等。
一个不能忍受孤独、一个缺乏自主性、一个人云亦云、没有独立思考能力的人，注定不可能成为一个出色的投机客。在投机者内在的心理修炼和精神超越方面，古老的东方文化可能是交易者自我拯救的智慧之源。包括茶道在内的东方文化的精神气质，也许可以在市场交易中让我们头脑更加清醒，行为更为理性。
“茶道的要义在于内心平静、感情明澈、举止安详，这些无疑是正确的思维和正确的感情的首要条件。隔断了嘈杂人群的形象和声音的斗室，其彻底清净本身就引诱人的思想脱离尘世。”（《武士道》）
高明的投机大师的精神世界是和哲学相通的。不信，你听听投机大师斯坦利 克罗下面说的这段话，不就是茶道精神在市场交易中的活学活用吗？
“当我发现自己被那些很明显的矛盾说法和人为的事后宣告和准分析搞得迷乱、不安时，我的做法是把自己与这些所谓的消息隔离开来。取而代之，我把注意力集中在一个详细而有实效的技术因素和指标的分析中去——试图从混乱中寻求到条理性。这段间歇最好在隔离状态执行，远离各种打扰和善意的建议者。隔离状态与期间稳定以及与分析的清晰和高质量看起来是有一种相关关系的”。
金融投机的成功之路并不神秘，也不是完全无迹可寻，它是建立在两个方面之上的：一是投机者对市场交易的基本思路头脑清晰、胸有成竹；二是投机者对人性的弱点了若指掌，这种认识既包括对人类千百年来亘古不变的本性，如希望、恐惧、贪婪、侥幸、自负等的洞察和了解，也包括投机者对自我特殊的个性特点、性格缺陷、行为习惯的深刻反省。
有人说，交易世界没有专家，只有赢家和输家。姑妄言之，姑妄听之。
打酱油
博客做的不错，感觉主题不是很好。
这个主题在wordpress里可是数一数二的了，只是我还要自己在改改就好了。
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How convenient. We are the conquering empire with 1000 bases all over the world and soldiers parked in almost every nation. Its like a game of Risk. We harass, covet and steal resources, we overthrow democratic govts and support dictators and when they complain or fight back a little, we declare War on Terror and pass the (un)Patriot Act and then anything goes. Cheney took that as his God given right to run kidnapping and assassination all over the world. Then we have secrets prisons and we torture people, knowing full well that never works. But I guess some people must enjoy that. Some day theyll make movies about this atrocious behavior and some will be embarrassed while others still wont get it.
Michael, common sensical makes sense to me.
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