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摒弃无序波动!

2010年10月8日 wangshuiheng

期货投机,就是利用价格的波动来套取利润。商品的价格每时每刻都在波动,影响这些波动的因素千奇百怪,可能仅仅因为某经销商心情不好,喊低了10元钱,就带动了价格的波动。由于这些波动不具明确的方向性,且变化多端,我们称之谓无序波动。无序波动对现货商影响很小,甚至被忽略不计。但期货实行的是保证金交易,所以会把一些日常的无序的小波动放大,让投机者认为有机可乘,参与其中更强化了波幅,从而吸引了更多投机客的参与,产生了人造行情。当投机客身处这样的无序波动中,会造成很多的迷惑,当基本面分析不能解释行情时,人们开始迷信技术面,并创造了“市场永远都是对的”大跃进口号,期盼着用以往的发生论证出未来,或者是反复纠缠于一堆图形和指标中,迷失自我。当技术也无法令这些短线客依赖时,占星,易经,神相都被拿来利用。其实什么都没用,因为那是无序的,是随机漫步的。
 在市场待久了,你会经常看到这样的现象,“某天价格突然大幅波动后,做多做错的都一头雾水,纷纷打听出什么消息了,什么都没有,但这一切总要有个解释,大众已习惯了解释。于是你看见晚间电视台某某人煞有其事的给了个狗屁不通的理由,大众得到了满足。一项新的职业诞生了——期评或股评。

 当你进入无序波动的漩涡时,你就走在了亏损的边缘,恰如你端着枪,搜寻着想象的敌人,却不知觉的踏入了地雷阵,稍不留神,就炸你个手飞脚裂的。而且受伤害的不但是你的钱包,还有你的心灵,让你懂得杯弓蛇影,草木皆兵,风声鹤唳的真意。让你觉得你从前人那里学习的方法论都是无效的,进而要么悲天悯人,要么转投神学。

 所以我要劝慰大家,不要把适用于有序波动的方法在无序波动中加以论证,更不要妄图抓住无序波动的利润,我们唯一要做的就是收敛自己的性格,让耐心得到回报。


分类: 交易交流
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  86. 2012年1月19日21:40 | #86

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